The choice of treatment in adult skeletal Class III occlusions often poses a particularly tricky problem for the orthodontist. Faced with the option of either orthodontic camouflage or orthognathic surgery, the clinician’s clinical experience is of paramount importance, especially in borderline cases. The aim of our study was to uncover a guide model enabling the practitioner to distinguish between skeletal Class III cases which can be suitably treated with orthodontics and those requiring orthognathic surgery. The lateral headfilms of 47 adult patients exhibiting skeletal Class III occlusions were analyzed. The orthodontic group comprised 22 patients and the surgical group 25. Twenty-seven linear, proportional and angular measurements were scrutinized. Stepwise discriminant analysis was used to identify the dentoskeletal and esthetic variables which most distinguished the two groups. The Holdaway angle was chosen to differentiate between patients prior to treatment. This model enables us to classify 87.2% of patients correctly.