Is speed of healing a good predictor of eventual healing of pyoderma gangrenosum? - 14/11/16
on behalf of the
United Kingdom Dermatology Clinical Trials Network STOP GAP team
Abstract |
Background |
Pyoderma gangrenosum is a rare inflammatory skin condition. Two prospective studies have evaluated treatments for pyoderma gangrenosum using a primary outcome of healing speed at 6 weeks.
Objective |
Using data from both studies we assessed the predictive value of 3 early predictors for healing at 6 months: speed of healing, Investigator Global Assessment (IGA), and resolution of inflammation, recorded at 2 and 6 weeks.
Methods |
Logistic regression models were applied and the effectiveness of the 3 measures was assessed through estimating the positive and negative predictive values and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve.
Results |
The positive and negative predictive value at 6 weeks were, respectively, 63.5% (95% confidence interval [CI] 52.4%-73.7%) and 74.6% (95% CI 62.5%-84.5%) for speed of healing; 80% (95% CI 68.7%-88.6%) and 74.2% (95% CI 64.1%-82.7%) for IGA; and 72.1% (95% CI 59.9%-82.3%) and 68.1% (95% CI 57.7%-77.3%) for resolution of inflammation. IGA had the best combined positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve at 2 and 6 weeks.
Limitations |
We were limited by data available from existing datasets.
Conclusion |
Speed of healing, IGA, and resolution of inflammation were all shown to be good predictors of eventual healing of pyoderma gangrenosum.
Le texte complet de cet article est disponible en PDF.Key words : clinical practice, clinical trials, lesion improvement, predictors, pyoderma gangrenosum, resolution of inflammation, speed of healing
Abbreviations used : AUC, CI, IGA, NPV, PPV, RCT, ROC
Plan
| The STOP GAP trial and STOP GAP cohort study were funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) under its Program Grants for Applied Research funding scheme (RP-PG-0407-10177). The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the National Health Service, the NIHR, or the Department of Health. |
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| Conflicts of interest: None declared. |
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| Supplemental materials are available at www.jaad.org/. |
Vol 75 - N° 6
P. 1216 - décembre 2016 Retour au numéro
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