A calcified aorta is often associated with poor prognosis after transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR). A risk score encompassing aortic calcification may be valuable in identifying poor TAVR responders.

The aim of this study was to develop a new TAVR dedicated score based on thoracic aortic calcification (TAC) to predict 1-year cardiovascular and all-cause mortality.

The C4CAPRI (4 Cities for Assessing CAlcification PRognostic Impact) multicenter study included a training cohort (1425 patients treated using TAVR between 2010 and 2014) and a contemporary test cohort (311 patients treated in 2015). TAC was measured by computed tomography pre-TAVR. CAPRI risk scores were based on the linear predictors of Cox models including TAC in addition to comorbidities and demographic, atherosclerotic disease and cardiac function factors. CAPRI scores were constructed and tested in 2 independent cohorts.

Cardiovascular and all-cause mortality at 1 year was 13.0% and 17.9%, respectively, in the training cohort and 8.2% and 11.8% in the test cohort. The inclusion of TAC in the model improved prediction: 1cm³ increase in TAC was associated with a 6% increase in cardiovascular mortality and a 4% increase in all-cause mortality. The predicted and observed survival probabilities were highly correlated (slopes >0.9 for both cardiovascular and all-cause mortality). The model's predictive power was fair (AUC 68% [95% confidence interval [CI]: 64–72]) for both cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. The model performed similarly in the training and test cohorts.

The CAPRI score, which combines the TAC variable with classical prognostic factors, is predictive of 1-year cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. Its routine use may help prevent futile procedures.