Over the past decades, total shoulder arthroplasty (TSA) procedures have steadily increased in the United States and Europe. In France, the number of shoulder surgeries rose by 24.5% between 2012 and 2018, but no study has yet analyzed TSA trends based on patient characteristics. Therefore, the aim of our study was to use the French healthcare database to (1) analyze growth trends based on the patient's sex, age, and comorbidity profile and (2) estimate the most appropriate incidence rate (IR) projections to the year 2070.

We hypothesize that in France, the upward trends are different for each sex and age group.

This study was conducted in France from 2009 to 2019 based on the French healthcare database (SNDS), which contains all nationwide procedures. Patients were analyzed by sex, age group (<65 years, 65–74 years, ≥75 years), and comorbidity profile (4 levels). IR trends per 100,000 population were inferred by patient age, sex, and comorbidity using data from the French hospital discharge database (PMSI) and population forecasts and censuses from the French National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE). Linear, Poisson, logistic, and Gompertz projection models were created to forecast IRs to the year 2070.

Between 2009 and 2019, there was a sharper increase in IR in males (+155%; from 6.0 to 15.3) than in females (+118%; from 16.2 to 35.3) across all age groups. This increase was most significant in those younger than 65 years (+112%; from 2.3 to 4.9), in both males (+129%; from 2.1 to 4.8) and females (+99%; from 2.5 to 5.0). From 2012 to 2019, the proportion of patients with mild comorbidities increased by +92% (from 5,435 to 10,410 TSAs, i.e., from 56% to 61% of total procedures), unlike the other comorbidity profiles. All the projections modeled the data from 2009 to 2019 with minor deviations. However, the logistic projection was the most likely, with a 45% increase in the IR for the overall population by 2070 (from 17,175 to 25,338 TSAs), which will start to plateau in 2050.

The IR has risen sharply in the overall population, as in all age, sex, and comorbidity categories, with the most significant growth seen in the<65 and 65–74 age groups and a shift toward patients with milder comorbidities. According to our projections, the IR will continue to be more significant in older patients, except for males, for whom the IR for those 65 to 74 years old will exceed that of those 75 and older around 2030. In the longer term, the IRs follow a logistic trend, reaching a plateau around 2050. Therefore, an increase in healthcare burden is to be expected to meet the growing demand for TSAs.

IV; Descriptive epidemiological study.