What is the predictive accuracy of the Framingham risk score for coronary heart disease in a UK population?
Prospective cohort study.
The Framingham equation significantly over-predicted 10-year coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality (predicted mortality 4.1% vs. observed mortality 2.8%; over-prediction of risk 47%; P<0.0001 for goodness of fit). The Framingham equation significantly over-predicted 10 year CHD event rate (predicted event rate 16.0% vs. observed event rate 10.2%; over-prediction of risk 57%; P<0.0001 for goodness of fit).
The Framingham equations over-predict risk of CHD mortality and all fatal and non-fatal CHD events in a representative sample of British men. The disparity seen is likely to represent actual differences in the levels of CHD risk in the Framingham population and the British male population.Le texte complet de cet article est disponible en PDF.
Keywords : Coronary disease, Risk assessment, Cohort studies
| Abstracted from: Brindle P, Emberson J, Lampe F, et al. Predictive accuracy of the Framingham coronary risk score in British men: prospective cohort study. BMJ 2003; 327: 1267–1270.