The role of post-therapeutic follow-up for breast cancer patients (pts) is open to debate. The aim of this study was to identify prognostic factors associated with the type of first event.

Data of 2,820 pts included in three adjuvant trials for node-positive breast cancer were used. Competing risk methodology was used to identify prognostic factors associated with time to first failure according to type of event.

After a median follow-up of 53 months, 732 pts had disease-related events (114 locoregional, 58 contralateral, and 560 distant metastasis). The prognostic factors associated with high locoregional recurrence were young age, number of positive lymph nodes and grade III. In multivariate analysis, the type of first event influenced post-relapse survival. Nottingham Prognostic Index identified three groups of pts at different risk of relapse.

Early relapse is rare in the first year after surgery and is associated with more aggressive disease. Using the Nottingham Prognostic Index, it is possible to identify pts at lower risks of relapse for whom it seems reasonable to limit the frequency of routine follow-up during the first years. For pts at higher risk of locoregional recurrence, regular follow-up should be maintained in order to detect potential curative events.