Projections of Aedes and Culex mosquitoes across North and South America in response to climate change - 10/04/24

Doi : 10.1016/j.joclim.2024.100317

Morgan E. Gorris ^1,^⁎ , Andrew W. Bartlow ², Travis Pitts ³, Carrie A. Manore ⁴
¹ Information Systems and Modeling, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, USA
² Genomics and Bioanalytics, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, USA
³ Intelligence and Emerging Threats Program Office, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, USA
⁴ Theoretical Biology and Biophysics, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, USA

^⁎Correspondence: Morgan Gorris, Phone: (US) 01-505-667-0892

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Abstract

Introduction

Climate and land use change may cause the geographical range of mosquitoes to expand, shift, or contract, ultimately changing what communities are at risk for contracting mosquito-borne diseases. Across North and South America, mosquitoes from the Aedes and Culex genera are vectors for numerous diseases, including chikungunya, dengue, various equine encephalitis viruses, Saint Louis encephalitis virus, West Nile virus, yellow fever virus, and Zika virus. The goal of our study was to project the geographical distributions of important mosquito vectors across North and South America in response to climate change which is important information to inform public health planning.

Methods

We used an ecological niche model and future projections of climate and land use to project the geographical ranges of two Aedes species (Ae. aegypti, Ae. albopictus) and seven Culex species (Cx. erraticus, Cx. nigripalpus, Cx. pipiens, Cx. quinquefasciatus, Cx. restuans, Cx. salinarius, Cx. tarsalis) over North and South America in response to both a high (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway [SSP] 5, Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP] 8.5) and moderate (SSP2 RCP4.5) climate warming scenario through years 2050 and 2090.

Results

For SSP5 RCP8.5, six species (Ae. aegypti, Ae. albopictus, Cx. erraticus, Cx. nigripalpus, Cx. quinquefasciatus, Cx. restuans) are projected to expand in geographical range, two species (Cx. pipiens, Cx. tarsalis) are projected to shift in geographical range, and one species (Cx. salinarius) is projected to nearly remain the same. Five species (Ae. aegypti, Ae. albopictus, Cx. erraticus, Cx. nigripalpus, Cx. quinquefasciatus) show the largest increase in high habitat suitability (>0.5 on a 0-1 scale) for SSP5 RCP8.5, three species (Cx. pipiens, Cx. restuans, Cx. tarsalis) show the largest increase for SSP2 RCP4.5, and one species (Cx. salinarius) shows a relatively small decrease in response to both scenarios.

Conclusions

We found that all nine species responded resiliently to climate change under both the high and moderate climate warming scenario, suggesting mosquito-borne disease is likely to be a continued threat in response to climate change. The projected geographical ranges can be used to inform disease risk analyses and mitigation strategies in response to climate change.

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Keywords : public health, vector-borne disease, climate change, niche modeling, geographic distribution, infectious disease