Remission and recovery rates for people who have had a first episode psychosis (FEP) remain uncertain.

We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess pooled prevalence rates of remission and recovery in FEP in longitudinal studies and conducted meta regression analyses to investigate potential moderators.

A systematic literature search of major electronic databases without language restrictions was conducted from database inception until July 1, 2016. Longitudinal studies with follow up greater than 1 year reporting data on remission or recovery rates in FEP were included.

Seventy-nine studies were included representing 19,072 FEP patients (mean age=26.9 years, male=59.5%). The pooled rate of remission among 12,301 individuals with FEP was 57.9% (95%CI: 52.7–62.9, Q=1536.3, P<0.001, n=60 studies, mean follow up=5.5 years). Restricting the analysis to studies, which used the remission in schizophrenia working group (RSWG) criteria (n=25 studies, n=6909 patients), the pooled remission rate was 56.9% (95%CI: 48.9–64.5, Q=656.9). Higher remission rates were moderated by studies from more recent years. The pooled prevalence of recovery among 9642 individuals with FEP was 37.9% (95%CI: 30.0–46.5, Q=1450.8, studies=35, P=0.006, average follow up =7.2 years). Recovery rates were higher (P<0.05) in North America compared to other regions.

Our data suggest that remission and recovery rates in FEP may be more favorable than previously thought. We observed stability of recovery rates after the first two years, suggesting that a progressive deteriorating course of illness is not typical. While remission rates have improved over time, recovery rates have not, raising questions about the effectiveness of specialist early intervention services in achieving improved recovery.