To evaluate the impact of baseline and change in vision on the risk of developing dementia.

Retrospective cohort study.

This longitudinal analysis utilized data from the 2021 and 2022 National Health and Aging Trends Study. Binocular presenting vision was assessed, including distance (DVA) and near (NVA) visual acuity, and contrast sensitivity (CS). Dementia status was defined based on: (1) medical diagnosis of dementia, (2) dementia score, or (3) poor cognitive test performance.

Of the 2,159 adults included in this study, weighted mean (SD) age was 77.9 years (5.2), with the majority being female (weighted: 54%), and White (88%). The baseline median (interquartile range [IQR]) DVA was 0.08 (0-0.20) logMAR, NVA was 0.17 (0.09-0.26) logMAR, and CS was 1.80 (1.65-1.85) logCS. Over the 1-year follow up period, 192 (6.6%) adults developed dementia. In time-to-event analyses, baseline DVA (HR: 1.08 [95% CI: 1.02-1.14], per 0.1 logMAR), NVA (HR: 1.07 [95% CI: 1.01-1.13], per 0.1 logMAR), and CS (HR: 1.09 [95% CI: 1.03-1.15], per 0.1 logCS) were associated with greater likelihood of incident dementia. Further, change in CS (HR: 1.14 [95% CI: 1.04-1.25], per 0.1 logCS worse/year), but not VA, was associated with greater likelihood of incident dementia.

Worse baseline VA and CS are associated with greater likelihood of incident dementia. Further, worsening CS over time, but not VA, was associated with higher likelihood of incident dementia. Future work is needed to study interventions targeted at improving vision deficits and examine their impact on decreasing dementia risk.