Changes in atrioventricular (AV) conduction and need for permanent pacemaker (PPM) are a recognized complication after open aortic valve replacement. We hypothesized that the need for PPM after CoreValve (Corevalve Inc, Irvine, CA) can be predicted with a combination of baseline variables.

In patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation, potential clinical, electrocardiographic and echocardiographic predictors of permanent pacing requirement were studied.

Between January 2007 and March 2008, 34 patients with severe symptomatic aortic stenosis were recruited in a single center. Mean age was 84.4 years (SD 5.4, range 71-93). Of 34 cases paced at baseline, 3 (8.8%) were excluded from this analysis, as was the single periprocedural mortality. Of the remaining 30, 10 underwent permanent pacemaker implantation during the same admission (33.3%). PPM was for prolonged high-grade AV block in 4 cases, episodic high-grade AV block in 5, and sinus node disease in 1. Need for pacemaker was correlated to left axis deviation at baseline (P = .004, r = 0.508) and left bundle-branch block with left axis deviation (P = .002, r = 0.548). It was related to diastolic interventricular septal dimension on transthoracic echocardiography >17 mm (P = .045, r = 0.39) and the baseline thickness of the native noncoronary cusp (P = .002, r = 0.655). A susceptibility model was generated, and if at least one of (1) left bundle-branch block with left axis deviation, (2) interventricular septal dimension >17 mm, or (3) noncoronary cusp thickness >8 mm was present, the likelihood of PPM could be predicted with 75% sensitivity and 100% specificity and a receiver operating characteristic curve area of 0.93 ± 0.055 (P < .001).

After transcatheter aortic valve implantation with CoreValve, permanent pacing was performed in around a third of patients and we present preliminary concepts towards a predictive model for this phenomenon.