This study investigated the 10-year incidence of progression from intermediate to exudative age-related macular degeneration (AMD) and identified genetic and environmental factors influencing that progression in the Korean population.

Retrospective, observational cohort study.

In total, 632 eyes of 418 patients (age: ≥50 years) with intermediate AMD were enrolled. The incidence of exudative AMD was assessed from color fundus photographs and optical coherence tomography images obtained at baseline and during annual visits. Data regarding lifestyle variables and dietary habits were acquired through comprehensive questionnaires. Genotyping data concerning 3 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), rs800292 and rs1061170 in the CFH gene and rs10490924 in ARMS2 were also analyzed. The cumulative incidence of exudative changes was estimated using Kaplan-Meier analysis. Associated influential factors were evaluated using univariate and multivariate Cox regression models.

The mean follow-up period was 3.99 ± 2.85 years. The cumulative incidence of progression to exudative AMD was 5.6%, 14.8%, and 28.4% at 2, 5, and 10 years, respectively. Multivariate Cox analysis showed that age (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.041; P = .0393), family history of AMD (HR: 3.175; P = .0184), and pre-existing exudative AMD in the fellow eye (HR: 3.186; P = 5.31 × 10⁻⁵) were positively associated with exudative changes. Regular intake of green tea (HR: 0.632; P = .0475) was associated with a decrease in exudative changes. The ARMS2 SNP rs10490924 (HR: 1.482; P = .0185) showed a significant association with AMD progression.

The annual progression rate from intermediate to exudative AMD in the Korean population is approximately 2.8%, which is comparable with that for whites. Intake of green tea may be a modifiable protective factor against exudative changes.