Type A aortic dissection (ATAAD) is hypothesised as a progression of aneurysmal dilation, but 60% of patients in the International Registry of Acute Aortic Dissection (iRAD) registry had a maximum aortic diameter (MAD)<55 mm. We aim to demonstrate that size ratios and aortic wall stress, assessed using a simplified markers, are unique to aortic patients who have had adverse events (ATAAD) compared to those who have not (thoracic aortic aneurysm [TAA]).

A retrospective cohort analysis of patients who underwent aortic intervention at Waikato Hospital, New Zealand between 2015–2020, comparing dissection (ATAAD) to TAA patients. MAD; ratio of MAD to standardised-points within the aorta; and MAD-to-height collected from computed tomography (CT)-scans of all patients was undertaken. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC)-analysis to determine cut-off point for each marker was undertaken together with multivariable logistic regression comparing both cohorts, cross-validated by propensity-score matched analysis.

Cohort of 215 patients, 78 (36.3%) ATAAD and 137 (63.7%) TAA; median age at intervention 63.3 years, 52 (24.2%) females, both cohorts matched for size. Using the entire cohort, the MAD: sinus of Valsalva (SoV) ratio>1.06 (cut-off value) had 4.5-times greater association with ATAAD (95%CI 1.46–13.8) and a 0.1-unit increased conferred 1.45-times greater association with ATAAD (95%CI 1.00–2.08). MAD>55 mm only seen in 33.3% of ATAAD (n=26/78), and not associated with ATAAD (OR 1.88, 95%CI 0.64–5.51). Compared to MAD, MAD:SoV ratio had greater sensitivity (33% vs 73%), lower number-needed-to-treat (17.9 vs 2.7) and superior discrimination (area under the curve [AUC] 0.54 vs 0.71). Findings were consistent with propensity score matched analysis.

MAD:SoV ratio significantly correlates with ATAAD (4.5 times), with superior sensitivity, discrimination, and attributable-risk-percentage compared to MAD alone.