Gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men (gbMSM) were ineligible to donate blood in most countries since the 1980's. In Canada the deferral period has been incrementally decreased from lifetime to male-to-male sex in the last 3 months. Now a few countries have removed the deferral altogether. Risk models have been utilised to estimate the probability of an HIV positive donation being released into the blood supply and to inform incremental changes to the length of the deferral period. Here we use public health data to estimate the risk of HIV if the gbMSM deferral criteria were removed in Canada.

We calculate the risk reduction among heterosexuals based on responses to standard risk questions routinely asked of donors. We assume gbMSM will donate at the same rate as heterosexual males. We apply the same risk reduction principle to HIV incidence and prevalence among gbMSM in the general population to evaluate the HIV risk without gbMSM time deferral. We model three scenarios where risk reduction is varied by assumptions about incidence and compliance with deferral criteria.

The estimates for all scenarios were not significantly different to the currently observed scenario which predicts a residual risk of 0.02 HIV positive per million donations (95% CI: 0.000006–0.09).

The models predict that removing the gbMSM deferral criteria would result in HIV residual risk similar to currently observed.