Head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) is characterized by high frequency of early cervical lymph node metastases (LNMs), resulting in poor survival of patients. However, cervical LNMs are difficult to detect, which makes the decision–making of which patients should undergo neck dissection surgery challenging for surgeons. This study aimed to analyze the clinicopathological risk factors associated with cervical LNM and determine the indications for neck dissection in HNSCC patients.

The medical records of patients diagnosed with HNSCC who were treated at our hospital between January 2010 and June 2020 were retrospectively reviewed. A database of their clinicopathological data, including sex, age at diagnosis, primary tumor regions, tumor size, and grade, was constructed. The associations of these clinicopathological features with cervical LNM were analyzed using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. The TCGA database were used to externally validate the risk factors.

Overall, 531 patients with HNSCC were included; 38.6% had confirmed pathological cervical LNM. Univariate and multivariate analyses identified that tumor size and grade were independent risk factors associated with LNM (odds ratio = 1.338, 95% CI: 1.015–1.767, p < 0.05; odds ratio = 1.936, 95% CI: 1.46–2.587, p < 0.0001, respectively). The significant positive associations of tumor size and grade with LNM were externally validated in the TCGA datasets.

HNSCC patients with large tumor size or poor tumor differentiation degree were at high risk of lymph node metastasis and were recommended to undergo neck dissection.