To examine the time to detectable retinal nerve fiber layer thickness (RNFLT) progression by optical coherence tomography (OCT) among glaucoma patients of African descent (AD) and European descent (ED).

Retrospective cohort study.

AD and ED glaucoma eyes from the Diagnostic Innovations in Glaucoma Study (DIGS)/African Descent and Glaucoma Evaluation Study (ADAGES) with ≥2 years/4 visits of optic nerve head RNFLT measurements were included after homogenization on age, diagnosis, and baseline visual field (VF) measurement. RNFLT variability estimates based on linear mixed-effects models were used to simulate longitudinal RNFLT data for both races. Times to trend-based RNFLT progression detection were calculated under standardized scenarios (same RNFLT baseline/thinning rates for both races) and real-world scenarios (AD and ED cohort–specific RNFLT baseline/thinning rates).

We included 332 and 542 eyes (216 and 317 participants) of AD and ED, respectively. In standardized scenarios, the time to detect RNFLT progression appeared to be similar (difference, <0.2 years) for AD and ED across different assumed RNFLT thinning rates/baseline. In real-world scenarios, compared to ED, AD had a faster RNFLT thinning rate (–0.8 vs –0.6 µm/y) and thicker baseline RNFLT (84.6 vs 81.8 µm). With a faster thinning rate, the mean (SD) time to progression detection was shorter in AD (4.8 [2.0] vs ED: 5.4 [2.4] years), and the 5-year progression rate appeared to be higher (AD: 59% vs ED: 47%).

Time to progression detection was similar for both races when assuming identical RNFLT baseline/thinning rates, and shorter in AD eyes under real-world simulation when AD had faster RNFLT thinning. In contrast to prior results on VF, which detected progression later in AD eyes than in ED eyes, OCT may detect progression more consistently across these races.