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Climate-sensitive infectious diseases in the context of climate change: Lessons from Brazil's floods, with leptospirosis as an example - 13/10/26

Doi : 10.1016/j.idnow.2026.105347 
Nathália Mariana Santos Sansone a, b, c, 1, Matheus Negri Boschiero c, d, 1, Fernando Augusto Lima Marson a, b, c, 1, ⁎
a  Laboratory of Molecular Biology and Genetics, Postgraduate Program in Health Sciences, Postgraduate Program in Health Data Science, So Francisco University ( Universidade São Francisco — USF), Bragança Paulista, SP, Brazil  
b  Laboratory of Clinical and Molecular Microbiology, Postgraduate Program in Health Sciences, Postgraduate Program in Health Data Science, So Francisco University ( Universidade São Francisco — USF), Bragança Paulista, SP, Brazil  
c  LunGuardian Research Group – Epidemiology of Respiratory and Infectious Diseases, Postgraduate Program in Health Sciences, Postgraduate Program in Health Data Science, So Francisco University ( Universidade São Francisco — USF), Bragança Paulista, SP, Brazil  
d  Medical Resident of Infectious Diseases at the Federal University of São Paulo ( Universidade Federal de São Paulo — UNIFESP), São Paulo, SP, Brazil  

⁎ Corresponding author at: Laboratory of Molecular Biology and Genetics, Laboratory of Clinical and Molecular Microbiology, LunGuardian Research Group —Epidemiology of Respiratory and Infectious Diseases. Postgraduate Program in Health Sciences, Postgraduate Program in Health Data Science, São Francisco University ( Universidade São Francisco — USF), Avenida São Francisco de Assis, 218. Jardim São José, Bragança Paulista, 12916-900, São Paulo, Brazil. Laboratory of Molecular Biology and Genetics Laboratory of Clinical and Molecular Microbiology LunGuardian Research Group —Epidemiology of Respiratory and Infectious Diseases Postgraduate Program in Health Sciences Postgraduate Program in Health Data Science São Francisco University ( Universidade São Francisco — USF) Avenida São Francisco de Assis 218. Jardim São José, Bragança Paulista São Paulo Bragança Paulista 12916-900 Brazil

Abstract

Introduction

Climate variability and extreme weather events may impact climate-sensitive infectious diseases, one example being leptospirosis. This study provided an updated descriptive and exploratory analysis of leptospirosis in Brazil, focusing not only on temporal and regional patterns, but also on the 2024 floods in Rio Grande do Sul, providing insights into the potential health impacts of climate-related events.

Methods

Nationwide surveillance data on reported leptospirosis cases, deaths, and case-fatality rates were analyzed across Brazil's five geographic regions from 2014 to 2025, together with mean annual regional precipitation data. Exploratory correlation analyses were conducted using data from 2014 to 2024. While data from 2025 were included descriptively, the epidemiological dataset was incomplete, rendering corresponding precipitation data unavailable, and these data were excluded from correlation analyses. Additional analyses examined the epidemiology of leptospirosis during the 2024 floods in Rio Grande do Sul.

Results

Between 2014 and 2024, Brazil reported 36,261 leptospirosis cases and 3170 deaths. Nationwide, cases increased from 3428 in 2023 to 4142 in 2024, and deaths from 290 to 362. The South Region showed the largest increase, from 1238 to 1988. During the 2024 floods in Rio Grande do Sul, 242 confirmed cases, 17 deaths, and 3270 suspected cases were reported. Even though exploratory analyses identified positive correlations between annual precipitation and leptospirosis cases and deaths in the South and nationwide, their associations were heterogeneous.

Conclusions

As they illustrate the complexity of assessing climate-related health effects in cases of leptospirosis, these findings should not be interpreted as evidence of causality. Integrated epidemiological, climatic, environmental, and socioeconomic surveillance is essential to the development of climate-informed preparedness and of timely responses to climate-sensitive infectious diseases.

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Highlights

•
In Brazil, leptospirosis epidemiology has exhibited marked regional and temporal heterogeneity.
•
The 2024 floods in Rio Grande do Sul coincided with a substantial increase in reported cases.
•
Flood-related disease patterns varied across regions and could not be explained by precipitation alone.
•
Extreme events expose vulnerabilities in climate-sensitive disease surveillance and response.
•
Integrated climate-related, environmental, and epidemiological surveillance can strengthen preparedness.

Le texte complet de cet article est disponible en PDF.

Keywords : Climate-related disasters, Convention on Climate Change, Floods, Leptospirosis, One Health


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Vol 56 - N° 7

Article 105347- octobre 2026 Retour au numéro
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