To determine the independent risk factors for intravesical tumor recurrence in patients with primary transitional cell carcinoma of the upper urinary tract, and to develop a risk-stratification model to allow more accurate prediction of recurrence risk.

Of 141 patients who underwent total nephroureterectomy for clinically localized transitional cell carcinoma of the upper urinary tract, the data from 89 patients were retrospectively reviewed. Patients with a previous history or concomitance of bladder cancer and/or a follow-up period of less than 1 year were excluded from this study. Multivariate analysis by Cox’s proportional hazards model was used to determine independent risk factors for intravesical tumor recurrence.

Of 89 patients, 37 (41.6%) experienced subsequent intravesical tumor recurrence during a median follow-up period of 39.7 months (range 12.0 to 186.6). On multivariate analysis, tumor multiplicity, pathologic stage, tumor size, and surgical modality had a statistically significant impact on the risk of intravesical tumor recurrence (P = 0.0075, P = 0.0221, P = 0.0377, and P = 0.0413, respectively). Pathologic stage and tumor size were inversely correlated to the risk. A scoring system for the risk of intravesical recurrence was developed from the proposed prognostic factors, and the patients were stratified into three groups according to their scores, with statistically significant prognostic differences between them (P = 0.0018).

Tumor multiplicity, pathologic stage, tumor size, and surgical modality all had a significant impact on the incidence of intravesical tumor recurrence. A risk stratification model constructed from tumor biologic factors may be useful in the follow-up of patients with transitional cell carcinoma of the upper urinary tract.