Development and validation of nomograms for predicting preterm delivery - 19/08/11
Reprints: Olivier Parant, MD, Centre Hospitalier Universitaire de Toulouse, Service de Gynécologie Obstétrique, Hôpital Paule de Viguier, 330 Avenue de Grande-Bretagne, F-31059 Toulouse, FranceRésumé |
Objective |
The objective of the study was to develop a statistical model for predicting risk of preterm delivery after in utero transfer for threatened preterm delivery in tertiary care centers.
Study Design |
This study was an observational study including a total of 906 patients transferred for threatened preterm delivery at Paule-de-Viguier and Croix-Rousse University Hospitals. Clinical and sonographic data from 1 series were used to construct logistic regression models for predicting preterm delivery and were validated on an independent series. An Internet-based tool was developed to facilitate the use of the nomograms.
Results |
Based on multivariate analyses, 2 nomograms were built: 1 to predict delivery within 48 hours after transfer and 1 to predict delivery before 32 weeks. Discrimination and calibration of the predictive models were good when applied to the validation set (concordance index 0.73 and 0.72, respectively).
Conclusion |
We developed and validated nomograms to predict the individual probability of preterm birth after transfer for threatened preterm delivery.
Le texte complet de cet article est disponible en PDF.Key words : in utero transfer, nomogram, perinatal network, tertiary care center, threatened preterm delivery
Plan
| The last 2 authors contributed equally to the study and article. |
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| Cite this article as: Allouche M, Huissoud C, Guyard-Boileau B, et al. Development and validation of nomograms for predicting preterm delivery. Am J Obstet Gynecol 2011;204:242.e1-8. |
Vol 204 - N° 3
P. 242.e1-242.e8 - mars 2011 Retour au numéro
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