Objectives. Karyometric analysis (Quanticyt) has proved of value as a cytologic marker for bladder cancer. This study was conducted to identify diagnostic and prognostic factors in a high-risk Quanticyt population to predict the prognosis of transitional cell carcinoma (TCC) of the bladder.

Methods. Quanticyt is a karyometric system for quantitative bladder wash cytologic findings based on two nuclear features: the 2c-deviation index (2cDI) and the mean of nuclear shape. Samples are scored as low, intermediate, or high risk. Before 1995, 109 patients with high-risk quantitative bladder wash cytologic findings were identified at our clinic. Four patients with previous invasive tumors were excluded.

Results. Histologically proven malignancy was found in 54 of 105 patients at first high-risk quantitative bladder wash cytologic findings. Invasive TCC was found in 16 patients, and another 10 patients had progression during a median follow-up of 3.7 years. In univariate analysis, the presence of carcinoma in situ (CIS), highest tumor grade, 2cDI, and highest tumor stage were significant predictors of progression. The presence of CIS proved to be the only predictor of progression in the multivariate analysis. A 2cDI of 2.00 c² or higher was a significant predictor of CIS, invasive TCC, and progression. At follow-up analysis after negative cystoscopy, 2cDI showed a tendency toward predicting progression.

Conclusions. These data confirm earlier findings that CIS is an important marker of progression. 2cDI as assessed by quantitative cytology is a practical tool to predict CIS, invasive TCC, and subsequent progression. A 2cDI of 2.00 c² can be used to further stratify high-risk quantitative bladder wash cytologic findings.