Calf circumference is a surrogate measurement of muscle mass. However, there is scarce evidence on its validity in predicting adverse outcomes such as mobility disability. The aim of this report is to determine if calf circumference could predict incident mobility disability in Mexican 60-year or older adults.

This is a secondary analysis of the Mexican Health and Aging Study and in particular of its two first waves. Sixty-year or older adults without mobility disability in the first assessment were included and followed-up for two years. Calf circumference quartile groups were compared to test the difference of incident mobility disability. Logistic regression models were fitted to test the independent association when including confounding variables.

A total of 745 older adults were assessed, from which 24.4% of the older adults developed mobility disability at follow-up. A calf circumference>38cm was associated with a higher risk of developing mobility disability, even after adjustment in the multivariate model, with an odds ratio 0.55 (95% confidence interval 0.31–0.99, P=0.049).

High calf circumference in Mexican older adults is independently associated with incident mobility disability. This could reflect the impact of adverse health conditions such as obesity (with high fat tissue) or edema. Further research should aim at testing these results in different populations.