Artificial neural networks: Predicting head CT findings in elderly patients presenting with minor head injury after a fall - 19/04/17
, Charles K. Brown, MD b
, Kori L. Brewer, PhD b 
Abstract |
Objectives: To construct an artificial neural network (ANN) model that can predict the presence of acute CT findings with both high sensitivity and high specificity when applied to the population of patients≥age 65years who have incurred minor head injury after a fall.
Methods: An ANN was created in the Python programming language using a population of 514 patients ≥ age 65 years presenting to the ED with minor head injury after a fall. The patient dataset was divided into three parts: 60% for “training”, 20% for “cross validation”, and 20% for “testing”. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, and accuracy were determined by comparing the model's predictions to the actual correct answers for each patient.
Results: On the “cross validation” data, the model attained a sensitivity (“recall”) of 100.00%, specificity of 78.95%, PPV (“precision”) of 78.95%, NPV of 100.00%, and accuracy of 88.24% in detecting the presence of positive head CTs. On the “test” data, the model attained a sensitivity of 97.78%, specificity of 89.47%, PPV of 88.00%, NPV of 98.08%, and accuracy of 93.14% in detecting the presence of positive head CTs.
Conclusions: ANNs show great potential for predicting CT findings in the population of patients ≥ 65 years of age presenting with minor head injury after a fall. As a good first step, the ANN showed comparable sensitivity, predictive values, and accuracy, with a much higher specificity than the existing decision rules in clinical usage for predicting head CTs with acute intracranial findings.
Le texte complet de cet article est disponible en PDF.Abbreviations : ANN
Keywords : Neural Network Models, Elderly, Head Injury, Minor, Falls
Plan
| * | This research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors. |
Vol 35 - N° 2
P. 260-267 - février 2017 Retour au numéroBienvenue sur EM-consulte, la référence des professionnels de santé.
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