To evaluate the risk of long-term tumor recurrence and progression in patients with low- and intermediate-risk non-muscle-invasive bladder cancers, which could facilitate optimization in the follow-up schedules.

A single-institution, retrospective analysis of 704 patients with primary TaG1, TaG2, T1G1, and T1G2 urothelial carcinomas of the bladder without concomitant carcinoma in situ, treated with transurethral resection, was performed. Response was determined and monitored by routine periodic urine cytology, cystoscopy, and upper tract imaging.

The median follow-up was 64.9 months (maximum, 120 months). Among all of the tumors, 59.3% did not relapse, 36.6% recurred in the bladder during the first 5 years of surveillance, and only 3.6% recurred after 5 years of follow-up. Eight urothelial bladder cancers (1.1%) progressed in stage, and 87.5% of the progressions occurred during the first 5 years of surveillance. An upper urinary tract recurrence was detected in 2.4% of the patients; 94.1% were diagnosed within the upper urinary tract during the first 5 years of follow-up and 5.9% occurred after 5 years of surveillance.

G1-2 urothelial bladder cancers recur and progress uncommonly in the long-term period. Although limited by its retrospective nature, the present study provides potential grounds for re-examination of the follow-up schedule for patients with primary non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer G1-2 tumors who remain asymptomatic and disease-free for at least 5 years.