To evaluate the association between apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) on initial multiparametric MRI (mpMRI) and biopsy grade reclassification (GR) to grade group (GG) ≥2 prostate cancer (CaP) in men on active surveillance (AS) with GG 1 CaP.

We retrospectively identified 242 AS patients with reported ADC values on their initial mpMRI. ADC value from the index lesion was assessed as an independent predictor of GR using a Cox model. To ease clinical interpretation, we used a log-rank test to establish an ADC cutoff of 1128 × 10⁻⁶ mm²/s for Kaplan-Meier analysis.

Of the 242 men, 70 underwent GR following initial mpMRI, of which 26 (37%) had GR at the index lesion. There was no significant difference in the median interval between biopsies for men with and without GR (P >.9). Men with GR had significantly lower median ADC than those without GR (P = .01). In multivariable analysis adjusting for age, prostate-specific antigen density, and National Comprehensive Cancer Network risk group, a 100-unit decrease in ADC was associated with a 12% increase in the risk of GR (HR = 1.12, 95% CI: 1.01–1.22, P = .03). Two- and 4-year rates of freedom from GR were significantly lower for men with ADC <1128 × 10⁻⁶ mm²/s vs ADC ≥1128 × 10⁻⁶ mm²/s (62% and 42% vs 78% and 68%, respectively; P <.001).

For AS patients, lower ADC on initial mpMRI index lesion is associated with increased risk of GR to GG ≥2 CaP and would be a useful component of multivariable risk prediction tools.