Enhanced metastatic risk stratification for cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma by combining clinical guidelines with the Erasmus MC model: Results from 2 nationwide nested case-control studies - 19/08/25

Abstract |
Background |
Reliably assessing metastatic risk in cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma remains clinically challenging despite established guidelines.
Objective |
To assess whether a clinicopathologic risk prediction model (Erasmus MC model) can enhance the identification of high-risk metastatic patients within the current European and National Comprehensive Cancer Network guidelines for cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma.
Methods |
A Dutch nested case-control cohort (n = 390 derived from N = 12,325), was first stratified by guideline-defined risk groups. Each high-risk group was further stratified using thresholds for the risk estimated by the Erasmus MC model. The performance was assessed in an independent English nested case-control cohort (n = 696, derived from N = 31,981).
Results |
The European guideline-defined high-risk group had a 3-year metastatic risk of 3.8% (95% CI 2.4% to 5.2%). Within this group, 18.2% of the patients were identified with a higher 3-year risk of 10.1% (95% CI 6.7% to 13.5%). For the National Comprehensive Cancer Network-defined very high-risk group, the overall 3-year risk was 7.4% (95% CI 2.0% to 9.2%). Of these, 34.5% of the patients had an even greater risk of 14.0% (95% CI 8.3% to 19.6%).
Limitations |
Routinely collected health care data often lacks detailed clinical information.
Conclusion |
The Erasmus MC model improves metastatic risk stratification by identifying higher risk groups within the frameworks of current European and National Comprehensive Cancer Network cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma guidelines.
Il testo completo di questo articolo è disponibile in PDF.Key words : cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma, guidelines, metastases, prognosis, risk prediction model, risk stratification, skin cancer
Abbreviations used : AJCC8, BWH, CI, CSCC, EMC Model, NCC, NCCN, NCR, NOTR, Palga
Mappa
| Funding sources: The project was co-funded by the PPP Allowance made available by Health Holland (Top Sector Life Sciences & Health), and an independent donation by Alphatron. The funders of the study had no role in study design, data collection, data analysis, data interpretation, or the writing of the report. |
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| Patient consent: Not applicable. |
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| IRB approval status: The Dutch study was approved by the Medical Ethics Review Committee of the Erasmus Medical Center (MEC-2020-0147). Informed consent from all patients was not required. Use of the English cohort did not require ethical approval or informed consent, as per Section 251 of the National Health Service Act 2006. |
Vol 93 - N° 3
P. 699-706 - settembre 2025 Ritorno al numeroBenvenuto su EM|consulte, il riferimento dei professionisti della salute.
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